V. Planning and assessment
5.3. Assessment
Conduct of CIMIC assessments will be performed as part of the overall HQ assessment process. To shape and execute this process CIMIC and other experts from all required staff functions cooperate under the lead of the HQs assessment element to provide an integrated assessment function.
CIMIC personnel at higher tactical level (corps level) and above are required to make regular assessments regarding their AOO as well as AOI. CIMIC staff at lower tactical level should be involved in this planning process by contributing to the situation awareness of higher HQ. And they also prepare for possible future tasks. CIMIC personnel are responsible for the evaluation of the civilian environment in the form of PMESII (TE). The responsibility of processing the PMESII (TE) factors can be distributed at the HQ’s differently among the staff elements.
The CIMIC staff is responsible for a variety of different analysis/planning products or contributes to them. A number of planning products are related to Comprehensive Operational Planning Directive and CIMIC functional planning guide and the entire planning process. In some cases analytical work will be similar to civilian think tanks – scanning environment for important topics to run the process. After completion to prepare the executive summary for the commander and subsequently disseminate to other HQ’s. NATO provides the CIMIC reporting and tracking system (CRTS); although size, format and functional area of analysis projects may vary depending on main focus of the HQ.
The CIMIC staff branch must search for new sources of information, not just military sources, but civil sources in particular. Many military institutions have agreements with civilian institutions to increase knowledge building and analysis capacity. Many think tank products are available free of charge on the Internet. These products can have a major impact on situational awareness and provide a better understanding of the operational picture.
An assessment should be clear to all readers. The characteristics as mentioned in CIMIC TTP1 are:
- Accurate. Bear in mind - inaccurate information may be more dangerous than no information at all.
- Consistent. An absence of consistency will hamper the identification of key capability gaps and areas of potential concern.
- Timely. Provide commander with information he needs when he needs it.
- Relevant. Your resources are limited - do not waste your time on work that do not affect the mission.
- Continuous. Mechanism or capability factored into the process that will enable staff to monitor and provide updates as necessary. In particular, emphasis should be placed on identifying progress and concerns relating to the most critical information requirements.
- Cooperative. Military staff, through the CIMIC liaison and co-ordination architecture, should attempt to utilise civil sources of information. Alternatively, it may also be of benefit for the military to share information of mutual interest with the relevant civil entities.
The most common way of providing input is by using format of fact – deduction – conclusion. Subsequently assessing the impact on operation and preparing recommendation for commander. Next step would be continuous monitoring the effects of action taken.
An example of a CIMIC analysis can be found in the annex.
PMESII & Technology, Environment (TE) – ASCOPE
Situational awareness and understanding is a vital element for any mission success. It may heavily rely on CIMIC contribution in the form of frequent, detailed and accurate assessments of the civil environment in the area. These assessments will provide a picture of the civil situation to enable all command levels in NATO to understand the situation and better make the future decisions and coherent planning.
Monitoring progress is aided through the adoption of commonly understood procedures and techniques. The main tool used for proper analysis of the cross functional topics is the PMESII(TE)-ASCOPE chart (political, military, economic, social, infrastructural, information, technology, environment domains interwoven with area, structure, capabilities, organization, people, events).
It might be useful to use other tools to better facilitate and process obtained information. CIMIC personnel is encouraged to look for new possible tools to support the analytical process in their HQ.
Political | Military | Economic | Social | Infrastructure | Information | Technology | Environment | |
Area | Existence (or not) governmental, local structures: district, municipality, province. Role and responsibilities of those structure. | Area of Operations (AOR, AOI), terrain cover, avenues of approach, GO (NO-GO, SLOW-GO) terrain, weather impact. | Industrial-areas, business centres, regular (Black, underground) market, residential zones, special economic zones, mines, agriculture analysis, trade routes: import - export (internal, external), smuggling routes, natural resources zones. | Purpose of area in terms of social aspects of society - urban/rural, historical, sacred sites, enclaves, neighbourhood, refugee or IDP-camp. | Overall infrastructure overlay, connection with other areas, potential civilian key areas, role of this area in infrastructural model, government (local) plans for this area | Access to what kind of information the inhabitants have and does it have an impact on them – TV, internet, newspapers, and satellite coverage. Can it be used by our forces IOT influence? What information comes from that area? | Access to technology by populace, inhabitants approach to technology | National parks, reservoirs, other important protected environmental places. Environmental services and their capabilities. Pollution in the area, main contributors to pollution, smog. Governmental plans for environmental protection, local authorities and people mind-set. |
Structure | Locations, internal structures and responsibilities. Balance of powers, vertical – horizontal structures, (local level, governmental level, other important offices and services). | Presence and role of: Headquarters, units, training facilities, support facilities, military jails, checkpoints, and other military infrastructure. | Banking system, cash flow system, para-banks, state pension and state law and order systems. Stock exchange, GDP/national debt/financial ratings. Citizen’s expenses analysis. | Housing conditions, religion buildings (church, mosques, synagogues), social support structures (elderly support houses, aid structures) Cinemas, gyms, theatres, sport areas, swimming pools, parks, kindergartens, schools, technical schools universities. | Existence of roads, railways, waterway networks and capabilities, port, harbours, airports capacities, bridges networks and load-bearings, dam’s capacity and energy production and potential affected areas in case of destruction. Energy lines and hubs, Schools matrix, hospitals and other medical support structures capabilities. | Existence of: radio tower, TV station, cell tower, newspaper office, printing press, internet – via cable and wireless (3k, 4k, 5k, other), information market regulations, capabilities of those media streams. | Existing technology structures – factories, structure of production in the area, labs, hi-tech hubs. | Existing environmental infrastructures: water treatment plants, sewage plants, Renewable sources of energy (wind farms, solar farms, geopower facilities) main polluters – if exist with main characteristics. Inhabitant’s sources of heating analysis. |
Capabilities | Presence of public administration, parliament, court, essential services (quality and numbers) fire department, medical service and other government departments (law and order). | Projection of force in all domains (land, air, see, cyber, space), logistic support capability (sustainment). | Area/country financial stability system assessment, ability to provide financial/economic services. Condition of Financial/banking sector | Country/area ability to sustain stable development. Assessment on vital and necessary services for all citizens especially young and elder. | Available services in terms of transport, media, law and order. Analysis on infrastructure access points for services and citizens. | Local authorities/government/opponent abilities to reach the society by variety of means. Coverage of TV, radio, internet, religion sites (churches), sms services. Populace communication technical standards (possession of radio, TV, SAT dish, wi-fi) | Hi-tech/civilian/military capabilities of area/country, know how level, military equipment used vs. country production abilities. | Environmental influence on local/country scale. Infrastructure capabilities e.g. purification water and sewage capabilities, energy production. Waste segregation. |
Organizations | Political parties, associations, legal/non legal political entities, social movements. | Military, para-military organizations, other uniformed services, voluntary fire brigades. | Business centres, labour unions, criminal groups, cooperative banks, banks, para-banks, underground economy entities. | Communities, religious groups, tribes, clans, family, informal networks, non-governmental organization, diaspora groups, minorities. | Maintenance/investments companies, subcontractors, local/governmental bodies responsible for infrastructure. | Media agencies, state and private media channels (TV, radio, newspapers, internet) Media influence analysis. Media owners and their agenda | State/private laboratories. Technical associations, technological start-ups, patent offices, technical schools and universities. | Formal and informal associations, movements or political parties with environmental claims. Issues with environmental protection. |
People | High ranking officials on governmental and local level, political influential personalities, lobbyists. | Manning, morale, level of training, commander’s experience. | Business leaders, criminal personalities, analysis of labour work force, number of pensioners, trends on economic development. | Celebrities, actors, gurus, priests, local and cultural authorities. | Local/governmental infrastructure specialists, construction companies senior personnel. | Journalist (TV, radio, internet), bloggers. | Higher universities/schools staff, factories technicians and higher staff, lab personnel, start-ups employers. | Environment protection leaders, environment/industry lobbyist, nation environmental protection ministry high ranking officials. |
Events | Campaigns, elections, political assemblies, marches, protests, riots, military coup. | Fighting, explosions, terrorist attacks, offensive – defensive operations, deployment, cyber-attack. | Economical scandals, trade fairs, harvest, market days, theft, robbery, bribing. | Macro scale and micro scale social events: national, local holidays, gathering, manifestations, rituals, rivalry, drugs usage, R/IDP flow weddings. | New investments, floods, earthquakes, fires, other natural or technical catastrophes. | Press conference, media release, fake news, info ops/psyops campaign, important news in information domain. | International, domestic technical fairs, open days in technical universities, hi-tech companies, technology contests. | International, domestic events in terms of environment and it’s protection. Global warming or other climate changes/trends. |
Measuring resilience aspects of nations
Approved by NATO Warsaw Summit, the seven identified baseline requirements ("7 BLR") of resilience have increasingly entered military domain and military focus.
Guiding questions in assessing nations’ resilience are:
- How resilient are NATO countries?
- How will the civilian domain impact on the military operations?
- What will be the consequences of military operations in accordance with Art. 5 (high intensity warfare) for the military and civilian domains?
- What must be done as a part of the preparatory process?
CIMIC estimate/operations assessment
On different levels within military operations, assessments are used to establish a common operating picture and ensure situational awareness and understanding. The operations assessment includes the generation of the comprehensive understanding of the operational environment (CUOE). Knowledge development (including the intelligence branch, supported by all other branches including CIMIC) provides knowledge on key actors and components that have influence on the operational environment so that a thorough understanding of the relevant systems is achieved. The basis for the CIMIC contribution to the CUOE is the CIMIC estimate. Created by the CIMIC staff in the initial phase of the planning. This is a living document which has to be updated regularly.
With a CIMIC assessment included in the CUOE, an image can be created of all (f)actors within the human terrain of the environment. The following (f)actors are addressed by CIMIC: Introduction, Mandate, Mission, History, Physical Terrain, PMESII&TE factors, CIMIC Operational Overview, and Non-Military Actors.
- Introduction
A short explanation of the use and the contents of the assessment. - Mandate
Documents like NATO, UN resolutions, host nation (HN) documents etc. and a short description what they mean to CIMIC. - Mission
Analyse the given directive from the commander. What does it mean for CIMIC? What are the CIMIC objectives? - History
What are the historical factors within the HN that influenced the current situation? A brief description of countries/areas history. - Physical terrain.
Geography
This should contain information about the geographical aspects of the area of operations (AOO) relating to (future) operations. Maps should be used as much as possible. Different layers may be used reflecting most stressing important factors. It may also be necessary to cover adjacent countries / territories even though they are outside the AOO.
Climate
This will generally be a short paragraph and must be broken down to the seasonal changes and potential specific climatic information that may affect the operation. CIMIC primary focus at the implications of the climate on the civilian (f)actors. Most of operational issues will be covered by reconnaissance section in HQ (J/X 2 shop). - PMESII&TE factors
Politics
Any grouping of primarily civil actors, organizations and institutions, both formal and informal, that exercises authority or rule within a specific geographic boundary or organization through the application of various forms of political power and influence. It includes the political system, parties and main actors. It must be representative of the cultural, historical, demographic and sometimes religious factors that form the identity of a society.
Military
The armed forces, and supporting infrastructure, acquired, trained, developed and sustained to accomplish and protect national or organizational security objectives. This also covers the internal security aspects of a country.
Economics
Comprehensive analysis on the economy of a country, or AOO, must be prepared. Economy most important branches. Flow of the money. Banking system. Budget in numbers. It includes not only economic development of a country, but also the distribution of wealth.
Social
The interdependent network of social institutions that support, enable and acculturate individuals and provide participatory opportunities to achieve personal expectations and life-goals within hereditary and nonhereditary groups, in either stable or unstable environments. It covers the social aspects such as religion, a society’s structure, the legal and judicial system, policing and supporting infrastructure, humanitarian, etc.
Information
The entire infrastructure, organization, personnel, and components that collect, process, store, transmit, display, disseminate, and act on information. Encompasses the information and communication media. Also covers the status of data flow in country (AOO).
Infrastructure
The basic facilities, services, and installations needed for the functioning of a community, organization, or society. Includes logistics, communications and transport infrastructures, schools, hospitals, water and power distribution, sewage, irrigation, geography, etc.
Technology
Technology is human knowledge which involves tools, materials, and systems. The application of technology typically results in products. If technology is well applied, it benefits humans, but the opposite is true, if used for malicious reasons.
Environment
Environment is the complex of physical, chemical, and biological factors that act upon an organism or an ecological community and ultimately determine its form and survival. And the aggregate of social and cultural conditions that influence the life of an individual or community. - CIMIC operational overview
This includes four distinct reporting groups (A, B, C and D) on which CIMIC operators need to report on. These reporting groups can overlap the PMESII&TE factors but can also be used to create independent CIMIC assessments. The basis of a CIMIC report is formed by utilizing reporting groups during initial assessments.
a. Key civil life support; power, water, sanitation, food and health.
b. Humanitarian issues; shelter, HA-demining, HA freedom of movement, HA protection/security, minorities and vulnerable groups, internal displaced persons, (IDPs) refugees and evacuees movements and IDP’s and refugees and evacuees assistance centres.
c. Key civil infrastructure; road network, rail network, civil aviation infrastructure, public transport assets, inland waterways/ports and CIMIC sites (relevant sites with impact on the civil situation like power plants, water plants, bridges etc.).
d. Civil administration; law and order, police, detention facilities, borders and customs, local authorities civil administration capability, banking/economy, telecommunications and media and emergency services. - Non-military actors
CIMIC should assess which non-military actors will have an influence on the military mission. Thinking of HN government, local population, IOs, governmental organizations (GOs), non-government organizations (NGOs) and civil society organizations.
Remember that the scheme presented above is only an example. It may be changed accordingly to commander and CIMIC needs. Make sure to come up with right format. Last but not least - remember to include necessary resilience aspects in CIMIC products or prepare a separate resilience briefing for the commander.
Indicator / factor deduction
INDICATORS
Definition:
An action, event, condition (other), specific or generalized, in form of gathered information, and expected to precede events that could be detrimental to NATO interests.
Why are we using indicators?
- Easy unclassified interface and working tool for external actors;
- Detection and management over discovered vulnerabilities;
- Early warning system for NATO;
- Increased base line resilience of NATO countries.
Indicators conditions:
- Measurable;
- Detectable;
- Contain resilience aspects;
- Convertible to unclassified Q&A format.
Indicators example:
Emerging of new movement (party) that is in any way supportive to x-land divide and rule policy (anti–united Europe, populist, nationalist)
Justification: Supporting (founding, running) efforts for parties/movements has proven to be effective tool in X-land arsenal in order to influence on current (future) country policy.
Measurement: information from open sources, intelligence community, reach-back institutions analysis.
Involvement: open sources, media (especially X-land driven), NATO units, reach-back institutions, other.
Additional (where/how): context of foundation of new body, finance issues.
Resilience aspect: possible threat to continuity of stable country policy (continuity of government), new actor influencing society (social resilience).
